That's how I do it. The 3.5 Year Hurst cycle is well known and has worked for 50-60 years now out of sample. 3.5 years is peak to peak - so the actual peak to trough is obviously half of that. I mostly adjust my methods in a binary fashion - going into "bear mode" and "bull mode." Works very well I must say. Certainly, was easy to see this time around. I also like Walk Forward Optimization - though I think you'll find the most robust methods really change very, very little with regard to parameters (which is what makes them robust). Kevin Davey is a guy that really takes that concept to another level. He's won multiple Trading Championships using modified, robust walk forward analysis. Great post!
That's how I do it. The 3.5 Year Hurst cycle is well known and has worked for 50-60 years now out of sample. 3.5 years is peak to peak - so the actual peak to trough is obviously half of that. I mostly adjust my methods in a binary fashion - going into "bear mode" and "bull mode." Works very well I must say. Certainly, was easy to see this time around. I also like Walk Forward Optimization - though I think you'll find the most robust methods really change very, very little with regard to parameters (which is what makes them robust). Kevin Davey is a guy that really takes that concept to another level. He's won multiple Trading Championships using modified, robust walk forward analysis. Great post!