Why Does Macro Only matter in March? SimpleSPYman

Week 10 - SPX/SPY Index Update

Why for the last 10 years have Macro bros only had stuff to talk about in like an 8 week window between Feb - Apr every year?

Volmageddon?

COVID?

GFC 5.0 aka that bank thing?

Ukraine?

Tariffs?

Isn’t it even slightly weird that they all kinda happen every 2 years? Not even slightly like the market might have done what it did anyway without these news events?

Really?

Well I am putting it here the next major crash will come in 2027 from now until then I will show you everything I have always shown you and tell you when it is getting more likely.

It will happen anyway and we will attach something to it to make us all feel safe and snuggly.

But why did IWM “know” about Trumps Tariff Tantrum all the way back in November 2024, but the magical SP500 didn’t know until 2025?

6854 +1.70% to regain momentum

6425 -4.67% to break trend

Not sure which chart people like the best?

I cannot make it any simpler than this!

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.