Was it Painful Enough?

Week 20 - Equity Portfolio Update

May 11, 2025

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Green lights.

As discussed in Hot Takes with Hank. SP500 on these measures is lower than it has been for 2 years, but is that “low enough”? Does that mean more pain?

I have said many times the best runs come when these signals come in pairs. So far we have the bottom picking we do not yet have the continuation.

OpEx seasonality would seem to poo poo the sell in May adage. 2024 spent much of the year in an offset to the past. Perhaps the same will happen this year? Will we know through Friday?

Do you still call it rarified air it is low? SPX spends 79% of its trading above our current measure.

Volatility curve back into “neutral” level for “normal” trading but as you can see last month was not normal. Where to next?

Mr Croissant crumbs would imply more positive flows, but this week Opex and Vixperation are flipped. When something changes does that mean different outcomes?

If no one knows there is something different how likely are they to change their decisions?

Who knows?

Current Open Equity = 26.6%
Stop Loss Trigger = 26.4%
Current Closed Equity Return = 25.1%

Our open equity outstanding is ~27% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~25% returns in closed trades, meaning ~2% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!

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