Squeeze the Juice.
China go given Fed air cover.
35 trading days ago, the VIX hit a certain level. Depending on your proclivity for doom-porn, that level might vary in your mind. 😉
Above are a couple of posts from that time. It was a challenge for me to comment on the index and the accompanying news flow, while our portfolio behaved so differently.
It genuinely felt like I was out of sync—but in a good way. There was no panic.
Just like today, there will be no panic to chase China trades, energy stocks, or any number of themes that come alive with yesterday’s news.
Ironically, the same people who, only weeks ago, claimed China was completely uninvestable will now be the ones jumping on these trades.
Daily
Hourly
5 Minute
As the levels compress, it puts us in two places at the same time.
Remember, these levels form the boundaries where the price stays the majority of the time.
The price doesn’t have to move down—just converge. If, over time, the price, Hourly (B)ottom, and Five (B)ottom were to converge but not break, that would signal a strong buying opportunity for me. It would be an options trade, not a futures trade.
That level, once again, also forms the boundary where price becomes highly volatile if broken.
Open Equity = 31%
Stop Loss (potential) Return = 25.4%
Closed Equity Return = 23%
Examples of positions closed this week.
These closed positions may continue to perform well after we’ve exited, but as stated above, they reached a point on multiple metrics that signaled it was time to exit.
“I am just trying to be a little less wrong every day.”
~James Aitken
I have my rules, and I will follow them.
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