SimpleSPYman - 4D Chess
Week 33 - SPX/SPY Index Update
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Scan you remember last week when we had all the super intellectual reasons of why the market was down. Now we have all the 4D chess reasons for why the market is up.
Has anyone watched Moon Knight? It’s the story of a chap with split personalities that is the avatar of an Egyptian god. The Egypt part isn’t important but mores the split personality part.
We will continue to attach these stories to things because our brain seeks order.
I wonder if the real bubble, if we are living through one, is in financial narrative. Constantly flipping from one story to the next to try to explain the unexplainable.
The dot is Green
Trend is 747.20
SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.
Its all cool beans.
It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.
We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.
In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.
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Hot Takes with Hank
Think pieces!
Third quarter has the smallest amount of variation…
Gamma is positive.
Heading into the strongest part of the month for flows..
Feels like deja vu and the compulsion is to feel like a fraud just posting the same thing.
I have come to realise it is the opposite. It is a superpower. The ability to review the same dataset continuously trying as much as possible not to inject any bias.
Just the facts when it comes to what has happened in the past and the humility to understand we can only try and map an approximation of that past on the future.
Just like a media that was trained to view the world as it was in the past but no matter how different it really is they can only use the same flip flop stories to explain it.
If you like all the wiggly wiggles then here are the levels.
The wiggles are fine.
For a simpler life If we just hold above trend and go flat below trend we can achieve this with the past.
How likely is it to manifest into the future?
Who knows?
I certainly don’t. It sure does help my sanity though to have a couple of numbers to watch out for instead of trying to pick my way through the split personality of “the noos”.