Risk On / Risk Off Rotation.

Week 21 - Equity Portfolio Update

May 18, 2025

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Old prices are just as important as new ones. We find ourselves going into next week where SPX will make a new 3 month high (possibly) by the old higher prices leaving the look back window.

Is that a sign of strength? Who knows. It is what it is.

This chart is based on VIXperation and we find ourselves in the strange position of options expiry happening before the VIX. Does it matter? Who knows. It is what it is.

So I guess we find ourselves in the Red?

Current Open Equity = 28.6%
Stop Loss Trigger = 24.4%
Current Closed Equity Return = 25.1%

Our open equity outstanding is ~29% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~25% returns in closed trades, meaning ~4% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!

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