Portfolio Breakdown for Week 12.5 of 2026

Week 12.5 - Equity Portfolio Update

Mar 26, 2026

∙ Paid

I am leaving to head to the mountains today so this is a little bit of a catch all post. I waited to send the portfolio update to see what nonsense came out of the weekend.

Cheerio 2025..

We are just heading into the depths of the second leg down from last year, we are 10 days away from a constantly falling realised volatility calculation.

1 / Variance

1 / 20 = 0.05 = 5% position size

1 / 15 = 0.0667 = 6.67% position size

1 / 10 = 0.1 = 10% position size

This is a very simplified version but I hope it makes the point.

Changing the subject slightly to gold but the above is a very important factor for gold. I highlighted all the way through 2025 that peaks in GLD price came on peaks in GVZ, which of course is the opposite to a SPY/VIX relationship.

Trend followers use volatility to increase/decrease their position size. Often as the gold price was peaking they would have been reducing their position on the way up.

Then while price was above trend when price fell volatility fell which meant they would increase their position in a falling asset, again counter to normal SPY/VIX that most people think about.

What has changed?

Gold vol has fallen so you would expect position sizes can be increased again putting a floor under the gold price from trend followers…

Gold has broken trend, there are very few positions left to increase.

But, but, war and stuff and things..

“Is your debasement trade in the room with us now?”

So this is how the portfolio lines up against the SP500.

Current Open Equity = 28.6%
Stop Loss Trigger = 25.4%
Current Closed Equity Return = 32.7%

Our open equity outstanding is ~29% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~33% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts