Macro Tuesday - The Little Smidge of Nonsense Version
Macro Update - Tuesday 13th May
TL;DR
💵 FX : Mexico FTW?
🌽 Grains : Soybeans remain strong against other grains.
📈 Equities : US Catch up trade? DAX already making ATH.
📡 Radar : Twas a Breakout!Lots of images so please view in browser as many email clients truncate the newsletter and their is juicy stuff at the end…
This is where we may need finesse. Although the total number of longs have fallen…
…something like FX where all except Mexican Peso have fallen. On the flip side Dollar strength should it return in many regime studies is not a sign of global strength. More on that later.
Cocoa is not playing today, are there many cocoa traders that subscribe?
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A little bit of nonsense…
I have been talking on the other place about the alignment of the USD with the oil price for a long time. As ever with these things the correlation comes and goes, nothing is ever a straight line.
Recessions in the past have come on the back of high oil prices not low prices.
Why have I been highlighting the negativity around gold lately? Well it is because I was sharing in places 18 months ago about buying gold it has been a very long run and it gets a bit boring :)
Why am I talking about oil? Everything quantitative that I measure is aligning now for oil just as it did with gold.
If the above correlation of oil and USD were to continue how would that play on gold? Again my job is not to short things. I am not good at it. What I am getting better at is finding the signals that are just right to create better longterm trends.
Brent
USD
GOLD
All the other currencies have had a huge move relative to their previous positioning.
Let’s wait and see. I do not want to short gold I said in other posts perhaps the best trade was long crypto. Being long is easy don’t over complicate it.
Oil is on the radar. And the height of nonsense of course “the street hate it”. I wonder if Cramer has tweeted about oil lately?