Our fixation with events and dates in the rear view mirror is epic, born in part rehaps by the sell side messages of 'if you missed the best/worst 10 days...'
The Great Crash of 1929 is misunderstood in many respects as it took from 1925 to 1935 to play out and whilst there was a circa 90% decline from peak to trough the drawdown over the entire 10 years was from about 140 to 100 and from about 1932 to 1935 you would have doubled your money.
There are a hundred reasons for things to go poorly or well depending on your positioning and arguably it is a more complex now and moves faster with the ability to be able to make decisions and multiple trades in milliseconds on a smart phone as well as with the algo flows.
We anchor on that great piece of research we just read, adjust our positions accordingly and sometimes imperceptably (even when we think we didnt) until the next compelling piece of research serendiptously crosses our causal path.
Anyway, one good ramble deserves another, so keep these up, I enjoy them because they make me think non lineally.
I have a strong vision of you walking with Hank who you do not sound like you are throwing any sticks for, so I guess he is compelled to listen at the lead end, as presumably does your family as you return home still rambling into your mic...
Good commentary Chris, thanks.
Our fixation with events and dates in the rear view mirror is epic, born in part rehaps by the sell side messages of 'if you missed the best/worst 10 days...'
The Great Crash of 1929 is misunderstood in many respects as it took from 1925 to 1935 to play out and whilst there was a circa 90% decline from peak to trough the drawdown over the entire 10 years was from about 140 to 100 and from about 1932 to 1935 you would have doubled your money.
There are a hundred reasons for things to go poorly or well depending on your positioning and arguably it is a more complex now and moves faster with the ability to be able to make decisions and multiple trades in milliseconds on a smart phone as well as with the algo flows.
We anchor on that great piece of research we just read, adjust our positions accordingly and sometimes imperceptably (even when we think we didnt) until the next compelling piece of research serendiptously crosses our causal path.
Anyway, one good ramble deserves another, so keep these up, I enjoy them because they make me think non lineally.
I have a strong vision of you walking with Hank who you do not sound like you are throwing any sticks for, so I guess he is compelled to listen at the lead end, as presumably does your family as you return home still rambling into your mic...