Hold onto Your Hats!!

Week 47 - Equity Portfolio Update

Nov 17, 2025

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6783 to regain momentum

6345 to break trend

Those darn wiggles are wiggling!

Bands are still super tight!

I jokingly(ish) sent this out on notes earlier. This is why I detrend prices to calculate levels.

The way people are talking you would think the market was down 10%. As of writing the SPY is -2.38% from an ALL TIME HIGH!!!

What is everyone smoking?

…but I think the “black line of doom” was a very apt name. No matter if it equals a possible 10% drop in the market or a 2% drop in the market, people will freak out if we test it.

As always these levels these colourful charts come on all the timeframes. So the question is will it cascade?

Those that have opened their pocket book will find out below.

Thursday saw us dip into the red zone, Friday intraday importantly we crossed into the black but closed above it.

VIXperation this week apparently.

Current Open Equity = 33.6%
Stop Loss Trigger = 30.9%
Current Closed Equity Return = 29.3%

Our open equity outstanding is ~34% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~30% returns in closed trades, meaning ~4% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!

Do I wish it was higher? Of course I do! Equities have had a crazy year in 2025 and I wish I had captured more of it.

I am also super proud that the system in the panic of April allowed us to keep our head and not make any stupid forced mistakes.

Everyday is a school day.

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