Just because it is an election year and we have the potential for the same person to win. We cannot assume that we get a re-run of the past.
In my 2 year volatility cycles in November 2016 we were just heading for year 2 vol compression.
Right now we entered that same 2nd year vol compression after the sell - off in October 2023.
We were right in the middle of the cycle last time, and very much at the end this time around.
It does not mean I am here forecasting doom and gloom.
Could any potential structural weakness be tempered by policy? Of course, it could.
It doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
On the flip side having this knowledge could put us at an advantage. We will not buy too early into any dip getting run over. As with most things it too shall pass. If it doesn’t catch us off guard and hurt us we will be in a better position psychologically to buy again when the system tells us to.
Before anything or nothing of what I laid out in the video happens, this red line at the top of the page would go red.
Until then.
Just keep swimming.
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