This Rally is Exhaustive...
Tuesday 5th March - Daily Equity Update
~5000
Reduce : CTLT V COFWe have held some nice equities here but not the crazy NVDA SMCI etc.
I track 4 measures of momentum and volume and rank them the top ten names here are at a maximum as I track it. Will I need to add another longer-term momentum signal? That is another question but for here and now 2 of those top ten are possibly rolling over. Let’s see what happens.
While walking this morning I was listening to the Forward Guidance podcast by Jack Farley. His guest was a gentleman called Milton Berg.
Of course, the name is very click baitey(?) as is everything these days. I was interested in listening because he did another interview with Jack in November of 2022. During this interview he was super bullish on the US stock market, in the podcast guest world he was very lonely at that time.
If you listen maybe do one while at the gym or walking or something then do a second listen but slow the replay speed down. I will admit that I turned off the November ‘22 interview about halfway through. He started going down rabbit holes of Gann cycles this and cycle count that. Am I all that different? OK, I am not counting lunar cycles or 27-year Gann cycles but I do track multiple momentum cycles. Is it the age-old battleground of fighting about a point of agreement but the two people are using different timeframes?
Jack highlighted that a possible reason for a continued bull market is the lack of speculation and crazy IPO cycles, people on the sidelines etc.
Something that feels different about the current crypto run is the lack of random texts and phones from friends asking about it.
Are we too close to the last craziness of 2021? Have people not had enough time to forget? Is it too close to sucking in the next group of retail? I am not singling out crypto here I am talking broadly.
Are the people “in” on this move the people that would have always been here? No new money has been dragged along for the ride.
Those of us left in fintwit from the peak in 2021 are just the ones that didn’t blow up or didn’t get sucked into the craziness then.
He talks very fast and almost entirely dates and numbers. Those that can stick with it let me know what you think.
Do intra-day moves change your view in any way?