Simple Is As Simple Does.

Intra-Week Portfolio Update

Jan 03, 2025

∙ Paid

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Simplicity can be the hardest thing.

There are many reasons why things do and do not happen. There are many blogposts, tweets and podcasts dedicated to trying to explain it.

We are inside the red distribution. The largest moves in both directions come inside the red distribution.

But…

They only account for ~15% of total trading days.

I may miss the start of a new move. I will also hopefully miss most of the big down moves. I am comfortable with that.

Until the lights go green I am not worrying “if this is a bottom” “this is the turn I am going to miss it” “Trump tweeted something positive” “COVFEFE”.

It’s all nonsense.

I get on with my day and will see tomorrow if we get the green lights.

Simple.

Current Open Equity = 33.1%
Stop Loss Trigger = 32.1%
Current Closed Equity Return = 31.9%

Our open equity outstanding is ~33% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~32% returns in closed trades, meaning ~1% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!

If all our stop losses hit bar any gap risk we hope to close ~32%

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