Short Shrift or Short Timeframe Shifts?

Week 11 - Intra-Week Update

Mar 19, 2025

∙ Paid

I highly recommend using the link to view these posts in a desktop browser. Substack limits the size of emails, and since I use a lot of images, some readers have been missing important data by only viewing the truncated email.

Daily timeframe:

Hourly timeframe:

I wanted to highlight the comparison between these two charts. Same calculation two timeframes.

What happened last night is we hit the ∆1 in our trend speak. We can have many more wiggles at smaller timeframes but I want people to imagine is this “test” of ∆1 on the daily timeframe.

We can learn from this hourly timeframe how we might evaluate the market should it reach the same place on a daily chart.

We may not be correct in our outcome but watching now could help us in a few weeks. We may need to watch and figure out if is this a breakout or a breakdown.

Have a plan, but think on your feet.

That decision might be at SPY 600 so a lot of wood to chop before we get there.

I need to stress the top page is all red!

We are still here.

Paid subs can see where we are adding some individual tickers but the index is still bearish!

I just want to highlight a shorter timeframe shift but it is important short timeframes might only matter for a very short period.

Current Open Equity = 30.9%
Stop Loss Trigger = 29.3%
Current Closed Equity Return = 29.1%

Our open equity outstanding is ~31% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~29% returns in closed trades, meaning ~2% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!

If all our stop losses hit bar any gap risk we hope to close ~29%

It cannot always be rosy! There is no free lunch we have to risk losing to be in the game to win. We could have a +0.2% addition on closed equity.

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts