Same or Different?

Tuesday 25th June - Daily Equity Update

Everyone looks at what happens today, it’s natural. If you look at fewer (uncorrelated if possible) things but just a little more in-depth you can see much more.

VIX trend just broke the threshold to signal a drop in the combined SPX indicator. Does that mean a crash is coming? Maybe.

If we look just a little deeper we can see volatility of volatility is also low which means the lookback window has lengthened. This means that the April shenanigans were still within the calculation. Those have now left. This puts us closer like today to breaking the threshold.

So does it mean the markets going to drop? Who knows.

What I do know is it has to drop below 5368/5357 before it can get to whatever the Xittwit crash number is.

I wasn’t joking yesterday that the crash predictions were coming out.

None of this is me being overly bullish by the way or at least I hope not. There is a risk in both directions that needs to be managed.

All stops hitting today would close at +18.4% since we began which would be a new high for closed equity. Open Equity puts us at +21.7% but those gains don’t belong to us yet.