Pop Ya Collar
Week 11 - Weekly Equity Update
OpEx week is here again, not only that but it’s a quarterly expiry. So I would recommend adding the following words to your mute list on Twitter “JPM hedge equity collar JHEQX”.
I went back what seems like a lifetime ago to last month’s post the decision points then were ~4960 which isn’t all that far. If we go back 2 months it was 4660 a whole 500pts below Friday’s closing price.
Along the way, I have injected a certain level of scepticism in discussing hedging points or highlighting the potential shifts in the individual tickers of the SP500. Meanwhile, the first image I post every morning tells you to be long.
There is always a story almost always alluring and intellectual, so very often that is all it is a story.
Have I lost money buying VIX calls? Yes.
Did I feel amazing on Feb 13th when the VIX spiked to 18? Hell yeah!
Should I have taken a lot more profit? Definitely!
All the while I was still long SP futures.
The future is unknowable that is why we have stop losses. In October there is an unknowable future path where someone just big enough panicked creating just enough selling pressure causing a cascade. That didn’t come.
There are thousands of missed or averted crises that we never talk about. There are 10 actual crises that we always talk about.
I sometimes wish my brain wasn’t wired to look for danger.
Mark your calendars that has to be the most “bull market comment” ever!!
This is where starting next week the fog of war will descend…
The dreaded paywall!
There are currently 150 intrepid explorers casting off the predictability of buying SPY and setting sail for constant churn and transaction fees.
I guess next week I will see maybe 5 of you and probably my Mum, although her target date fund pension is doing great right now! So maybe not.
Industrials have continued the outperformance since their huge catch-up after the October low.
The way the signal works it feels like you have to sit on your hands while Energy is currently ripping up trees “but” Industrials also felt like that in December before many of the individual companies had a pullback. Energy may be added but from a position with a better Risk : Reward profile. Let’s watch and see.
Strength of Signal Charts ← Link to all sub-sectors
Portfolio changes for this week.
Additions : SNA FLT GRMN ENPH ESS
Removals : COST CTLT TRV URI V COF
