People Skip the Crescendo and Only Look for the Crash
Week 49 - Equity Portfolio Update
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5884 - 5932 is the line in the sand heading into next week.
We remain in the green on the rainbow chart.
Importantly outside of the orange zone where we transition into the fat tail distribution curve.
This chart shows we are in the green zone where short-term and long-term momentum is moving higher.
Strength of Signal levels across various timeframes.
This is the SPX seasonality chart linked not to months but OpEx dates. I have also time-shifted the chart to accommodate leap year, holidays etc.
Realised volatility has fallen significantly using a 3-month lookback. 1 month has plateaued for the last 3-4 weeks.
We now head into a period denoted by a green box so it is clearly bullish ;)
Current Open Equity = 37.9%
Stop Loss Trigger = 30.7%
Current Closed Equity Return = 28.1%
Our open equity outstanding is just shy of 38% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture 28% returns in closed trades, meaning ~10% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!
If all our stop losses hit bar any gap risk we hope to close ~30.7%
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And our current open positions:
Example of positions closing this week.
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