...or rarefied air?

Wednesday 10th July - Daily Equity Update

5467 and 5444 are the decision points.

Now let’s try and scare ourselves.

Here's a sneak peek into our portfolio: this is the SoS chart for TER, which we have held since May 6th, with a +26.6% open profit.

• The 21-day SoS has fallen from a peak level of +1. This is normal, as almost all equities tend to max out at the lowest measure.

• The 63-day SoS has peaked at a level similar to its peak in late 2020, where it also reached a maximum level.

• The 128-day SoS has also peaked at a level it rarely surpasses, except in 2017.

Now that I have explained QQQy and IWMy, I hope everyone understands. Next, we need to think about "thin air" or "rarefied air."

Using the last 3 years as a reference, we would classify it as thin air up here for TER.

If we go back to the 2017 period, it could be considered rarefied air, where we are hanging on for dear life. I very nearly used the rocket ship emoji—that could be dangerous.

Does this mean a straight line to the sky?

Are people predicting a crash head-first into a rocket ship?

Well, no. But if we cast our minds back to the "dark ages" of two months ago, AAPL was predicted to go to zero(creative license) due to falling Chinese demand. Since then, AAPL is up 40%.

Let's make a prediction: I think AAPL will wobble, and everyone will say, “As goes AAPL, so goes the market/economy.”

In two months, AAPL will have transitioned from “What does AAPL even innovate in anymore?” to “AAPL decides the market direction.” Wow, that is a short memory.

If we use the 2017 analogy, everyone hoping and dreaming for a 10% pullback again won’t buy the 2-3% pullback that we might get.

I am a random dude on the internet none of this is trading advice this is me sharing my portfolio and trying to share how I think about things. Do your own research and where possible share it with the group.

Every day is a school day.