How unlucky would we have to be?

Week 20 - Weekly Equity Update

As we head into next week we have all green on the board. Momentum 5101 is still playing catch up and finds itself below trend 5131.

The most recent analogous time to today is perhaps September 2021. Where we have 1 month momentum at a minimum and 3 month catching down? Does it mean we play out exactly like the end of 2021. Who knows? I am not here trying to predict what can or will happen. I am here simply trying to risk manage the path based on probabilities.

Three green lights above plus a possible crescendo top. Add to that a potential breakdown in volatility.

Into a period of SPX strength based on OpEx seasonality.

Much shorter term the final week or so or intra OpEx strength.

Lots of green lights.

As always breaking momentum and trend will change all that, until then we just keep swimming.

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