Decision points and Dominoes.
Friday 9th February - Daily Equity Update
Long before I started writing here I discussed dominoes. This is a perfect example, if coming into this week/month/year you have been long you can now make decisions in somewhat of a comfortable manner.
Some will have been forced to capitulate potentially at the wrong time.
Some on Twitter brilliantly navigated 2023 and decided last week was the week to short the market. They may be right over the coming weeks but often on the run up here they poked fun at the bears “Would you short this chart” and then turned around and shorted a new ATH??
I thought we were meant to wait for “confirmation” of a downtrend.
Anyway, 4882 and then 4873 or 13.21 on VIX are where we need to act on the next domino. Until then each position has its decision points updated every morning.
To bring any new subs up to speed the green “long” boxes are about their impact on SPX. VIX is below the flip line 13.21 hence its trend is lower which “should” have a positive impact on SPX.
The Combined Signal Indicator is now at its maximum.
Reduce : Half position size JNPR NRG AIG ABT SPGI IFFThe way I run the portfolio is equal to weight therefore 50 positions * 2%.
For something like JNPR and NRG in those positions this possible early indication of a shift means we are capturing a ~12-13% gain in both. If the trend continues we size them back up when the system tells us to do so. We have captured some gains which means any new position can now be x basis points larger as we move forward.
