Black Line of Doom!
Intra-Week Update
I highly recommend using the link to view these posts in a desktop browser. Substack limits the size of emails, and since I use a lot of images, some readers have been missing important data by only viewing the truncated email.
It is a long old way to get back above trend!
We finally tag on a close the Black Line of Doom.
This is not me saying back up the truck and hold for the next 3-6 months.
We have a point in the past which can trigger a bounce. Within a volatility distribution that generates the largest negative and positive moves.
Where the forward returns of that trigger look like this.
This could be over and off we go through the summer. What is far more important to be on the right side of now is not the bearish view it is how the new recent bears could get skewered over the very short term.
Be careful.
Current Open Equity = 32.1%
Stop Loss Trigger = 29.5%
Current Closed Equity Return = 28.9%
Our open equity outstanding is ~32% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~29% returns in closed trades, meaning ~3% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!
Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.
New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts
Hot Takes with Hank
Discord Channel - open channel available to all.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Buy Strength, Sell Weakness to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.