Bear Market Bounce?

Week 11 - Equity Portfolio Update

Mar 16, 2025

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We remain below momentum and trend, which means we remain in the red.

The red denotes large swings, both up and down.

Daily timeframe:

Interesting point? Or is the longer timeframe Strength of Signal falling more important now?

Hourly timeframe:

In the hourlies we could see a bounce. Does that mean weeks, days or hours?

Others:

Seasonality season. Are we off to the races in time for spring?

Current Open Equity = 30.9%
Stop Loss Trigger = 29.3%
Current Closed Equity Return = 29.1%

Our open equity outstanding is ~31% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~29% returns in closed trades, meaning ~2% open equity still belongs to Mr Market. Until we close the trade it doesn’t yet belong to us!

If all our stop losses hit bar any gap risk we hope to close ~29%

It cannot always be rosy! There is no free lunch we have to risk losing to be in the game to win. We could have a +0.2% addition on closed equity.

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And our current open positions: