Another week down...

Week 21 - Weekly Equity Update

It feels like cheating just using Dori on a weekend post but is there honestly anything else to say?

Just keep swimming 🐠

Signal Strength has rebounded.

1 month falling below 3 month falling below 1 year realized volatility.

I don’t see many people posting seasonality charts lately. Did the summer run start one OpEx early?

This is how I calculate Trend levels. Using these calculations April hit the same low that Oct ‘23 did and the same as Jun ‘22. The nominal numbers do not matter. The difference today is that we have immediately made a new 3-month high, which we didn’t do for over 3 months last year.

It also highlights why although Oct ‘22 was a nominal low of ~3400 we had made an intervening high and hit a lower trend level. This differentiated it from the Jun ‘22 low.

Not all rainbows and puppy digs though. This by my count puts us as 7 positive and 1 negative.

Ultimately no one has any idea about the future. If anyone tells you they can predict anything run away very quickly.

This is all on a balance of probabilities these probabilities even at new highs lean one way.

Who knows?

What a difference a month makes.