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Most people have seen Top Gun and in a dog fight the chased pilot fires off flares to act as decoys to distract missiles.

In submarine warfare you have the same thing, but because everything is much slower we could be more fancy. We could make our decoys float and move to mimic other ships/submarines but of course be “noisier” than us and hence present a better target to the chasing torpedo.

Whether they know it or not (the ones that do know are very dangerous) most financial commentators are noise makers and distractions.

One such particular piece of noise is “the everything bubble”, does this look like an everything bubble to you?

From its peak on 4th Dec 2024 to 4th December 2025 it is down 84% to today 88%.

“What the hell is Sandbox? Chris”

I have no idea I just clicked of one in a hundred that look just like it.

Excuse my language but that is a pretty shitty bubble.

Using the same period Oil is -17%.

Gold is +63%.

Just for a second remove the SP500 and Nvidia and QQQ from the equation. If you had only the two charts above what would you surmise about markets and the economy?

Do you think your answer would be it looks more like the end of 2020 or the end of 2021?

By the end of 2020 many of the noise makers were talking about how things had moved “too far too fast” and that we would have to feel the pain of our decisions.

2021 saw the noise makers talking about “In essence, the financial media consensus at the end of 2021 was one of cautiously optimistic growth and stocks, tempered by inflation concerns and tightening monetary policy, rather than an expectation of an imminent downturn.” I am not sure if ChatGPT makes my point or not with this summation but I am not going to cherry pick something just for the three people that are still reading all the way down here…

Torpedos are designed with jammer tactics and decoy classification. They will break off the attack turn and dive to preset depths run away from both the target and the decoy fire 2 active pulses of sonar and try to regain the target.

That is our job!

My choice is not to listen. I don’t have to I am not in the financial industry, I do not have clients swimming in financial bullshit and have questions to answer no matter how non-sensical.

So most people need to deploy jammer tactics, consume just enough to inform your own opinion but not too much that you become locked onto the decoy.

“What does this have to do with Crypto bro?”

Just like when we bought Health Care stocks 44% returns ago, crypto is hated! Michael Saylor cannot even buy a slot on CNBC or Bloomberg.

Trigger_9b is the scraping the barrel you may as well not exist kind of trigger.

These things are never perfect at least as I view things the anti-bubble in crypto could be ending. Now that does not mean remortgage the house and go full naked long some penny shitcoin.

It means whatever you have decided is your number for your portfolio 1-5-10-20% whatever it is now while none of the noise makers are in the water is the time to be looking at the space.

If you have done your research and picked some coins that you “believe in” well perhaps now is the time to buy 1% of your 10% allocation and watch it like a hawk.

1	XMR	↗︎
2	SKY	↘︎
3	BCH	-
4	UNI	↗︎
5	TRX     ↘︎
6	
7	
8	
9	
10	
11	
12	
13	
14	
15	

Let me be honest the turn could well be coming simply because the numbers that drive everything cannot get any worse.

This should be the answer to most things. Not some bullshit story that is never checked after the fact.

Someone can write a piece and get millions of views and all we really know is that he used his degree in English Literature to write wonderfully.

What we never consider is if he had posted that “prescient piece” 6 months earlier or 6 months after would it have been so fortunate?

Who knows?

If you want to play in crypto now may be the time where you can dip your toe with at least some cover for the largest losses.

That doesn’t mean that these things get a free pass because they are “cheap”!

Everything has to prove its place in your portfolio. Each ticker/token/coin needs to meet our long criteria and maintain its uptrend.

With so many noise makers and decoys in the water I just look at the numbers. I cannot tell you about all the implications of China weaponising gold to break the USDollar like some of the greatest Macro Thinkers on Twitter with their Sociology Degrees. I cannot compete in that intellectual arena.

So all I have is what I share with my wiggly lines.

I know at the start of this I asked you to remove the SP500 from your analysis of what the macro might be telling us but seeing the SPX and the VIX are probably the single biggest factor on global markets lets bring them back in..

I think the more likely outcome is a compression of volatility. As April 2025 becomes an ever smaller part of the look back window it will force a compression of what we use here which are trend lines/bands.

“What does that have to do with crypto?”

I think it has to do with everything it means that models will be forced to increase total risk. Each unit of risk will now account for a smaller proportion of the portfolio because its volatility will be smaller.

I am in the “2021 is ahead of us” group. I think the silliness can get a lot sillier.

Importantly if I am wrong I have wiggly lines to tell me I am wrong and I can close my positions. I do not have to rent conviction from some talking head about what an asset will do and just have wait for another YouTube video for them to tell me everything will be OK don’t sell yet.

Rant over.

I wish everyone a great 2026 and I hope you are happy and lucky.

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We have a mixed bag of correction and Bullish/Bearish. Remember that this is a measure of momentum, things can still go up in price with falling momentum.

1	TRX	↗︎
2	BCH	↗︎
3	CRO	↗︎
4	LTC	-
5	TON11419↘︎
6	ETH	↗︎
7	BNB	-
8	UNI7083	↘︎
9	LINK	↗︎
10	HBAR	↘︎
11	XRP	↗︎
12	SUI20947↗︎
13	INJ	↗︎
14	AVAX	-
15	MKR	↗︎

Theme of this post seems to be prices are above trend established earlier this year but below short-term momentum.

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8 months ago · Christopher Moir

Think pieces!

SP500 Portfolio Update

Buy Strength, Sell Weakness

Index plus Nothing for the Win!

I highly recommend using the link to view these posts in a desktop browser. Substack limits the size of emails, and since I use a lot of images, some readers have been missing important data by only viewing the truncated email…

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8 months ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · Christopher Moir

Gold(en) Opportunity

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60% of our coverage is signalling a rebound but this is yet to transition to any new longs.

Theme of this post seems to be prices are above trend established earlier this year but below short-term momentum.

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This is where there is not one silver bullet in this game. This week has seen give back.

Momentum measures are showing in a “correction” but importantly many things remain above trend.

Which we can see here.

Use the trend levels to close positions if needed. Personally I have a separate crypto account, right now my open positions total 27% of that account total.

This is the start of something (possibly) there will be time to build. If it isn’t well then we only have 27% to manage out of our losses should they come.

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Daily close on crypto is 00:00GMT there has been a “Trump Pump” this morning off macro news nonsense, so lots of this red has been undone.

MATIC the only lonely ticker not long…

Names are more likely to move up the vertical axis then across the horizontal axis. This is because of the speed difference being tracked.

Could we be seeing TRX taking a breather here?

This is a messy chart but it is a quick way to view lots of data. Think of these dots as looking straight down the end of a line graph. So here we are looking at 132 charts at once.

Red shows the current value of the measurement SoS (Strength of Signal) and blue shows an average of where in the past the measurement has peaked.

This is not a predictor but again if we use TRX using the short term measure it has peaked and started to fall. Medium it has converged on a peak measurement of the past. Long it is not quite a peak but very close.

Someone who is too clever by half might think “great a pairs trade short TX and long MATIC”. That is a possibility or we could just sell TRX if it breaks trend and buy MATIC if it gains trend. Nice and simple.

Take care of your losses and the wins will take care of themselves.

We are coming from very low Strength of Signal measures across the board. The first steps are always bumpy feel your way into this rally.

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https://discord.gg/vsdBws3Rmg

We are coming from very low Strength of Signal measures across the board. The first steps are always bumpy feel your way into this rally.

Crypto has lots of upside, control your losses and let the upside take care of itself.

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Discord Channel - open channel available to all.

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People are short for time.

I do not want to take up any more than I need.

The top “Returns” section says it all. If you need to dress it up as “build stuff in bear markets” that’s cool.

I check prices every day and I will post interesting things. Thats it.

For now, it will all be done for free.

Now everyone is free to go about their day no-nonsense required ;)

Discord channel → https://discord.gg/vsdBws3Rmg

This is not a hard sell, constant blah blah trading chat room!

I post stuff intra-day if I think people will find it useful. Also we use the audio feature which currently is not an option direct through Substack.

Latest Equity post.

Latest blah blah while walking my dog.

Discord channel → https://discord.gg/vsdBws3Rmg

This is not a hard sell, constant blah blah trading chat room!

I post stuff intra-day if I think people will find it useful. Also we use the audio feature which currently is not an option direct through Substack.

Latest Equity post.

Crypto “closing” prices print at midnight GMT. So I need to figure out a schedule for posting. Writing this on Sunday didn’t capture any of the Trump Pump. Writing again yesterday after work didn’t show the unpumping of the pump by Trump.

We’ll figure it out.

MKR hangs in after all the nonsense.

TRX is on the watchlist because it is high but admittedly falling on the ranking. It remains for now above trend. This may put it at the top of the list if another rotation comes.

How to read these charts :

Fast moving is vertical so at the start of a trend we move up faster than out. If strong fast momentum translates to strong slow momentum we get the full curve. If it fails there we get the reverse. We may see corrections as strong momentum is maintained for longer against weak fast momentum.

Discord channel → https://discord.gg/vsdBws3Rmg

This is not a hard sell, constant blah blah trading chat room!

I post stuff intra-day if I think people will find it useful. Also we use the audio feature which currently is not an option direct through Substack.

Latest Equity post.

This is throw shit at the wall and see what sticks. People who have followed me for a while cover your ears I am about to be a huge hypocrite.

I copied templates that I use from equity land even though I know they might not be the best fit.

The important part is that although the pictures look the same everything underneath is crypto-specific. My process and how I view things are the same but the model underneath matches the asset.

So things will change. Hopefully with everyone’s help. If your help guides the model hopefully money will be made along the way but I will sub your paid subscription as a thank you.

This uses a combination of momentum signals to place a percentage of tickers in each regime.

An overview of the sectors as I see them. Of course, input is welcome on the sectors and what tickers are where.

Here we have a Strength of Signal score, performance over timeframes and wether the ticker is long.

An individual representation of the top chart with less fancy colours.

SoS ranks and levels used to calculate stop losses etc

Momentum heatmap.

Cumulative heatmap.

All will be revealed over time please ask any and all questions. Some of these charts may never be seen again dozens more may appear.

Who knows?

Discord channel → https://discord.gg/vsdBws3Rmg

“Thinking machine supercomputer”

~ Mr DNA Jurassic Park 1995

I hate clickbait bullshit!!!

TL;DR

Ethereum is now a long.

This is the first of many crypto posts from someone who made money in crypto but really doesn’t care all that much about crypto.

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Joking aside (the jokes are never put aside) I don’t care they are just tickers. Sometimes we are long sometimes we are not. Thats it. Buy Strength Sell Weakness.

Anyway..

This is a chart of Ethereum with funny lines on it.

Those funny lines come from this data extraction.

These data points were generated by a trigger. The last time this triggered was September 6th 2024

Based on the historical outcome of this trigger it has not performed well given that we are 46 days into the 60 days that this backtest captures.

Next we have Signal Strength. This is a measure of 1/3/6 month strength.

We are coming from a very depressed level across all timeframes. 1 month being the shortest term is of course the fastest to react.

This period is very similar to Halloween last year through to March 2024.

This is the same period on the price chart.

ETH as shown here via futures has finally gone long.

Admittedly so far it is because looking backwards ETH looks like a huge stinking turd. So really it looks kinda just a little bit like a polished turd right now.

Here is the kicker and no there is no crypto bro rocket ship nonsense.

Trend followers have been doing OK.

Trend followers have more $$$ in their back pockets than the last time they got to buy ETH.

They, all else equal, will be buyers soon.

I am an idiot with a laptop this is not financial advice!!