TL;DR 
288 longs and all the "too far too fast" brigade are back out in force!

What a difference a week makes.

Did you know in another crazy week we went down 0% and up 3%.

Whodathunkit?

Meta went OK still not above trend, but a lot of its communications brothers and sisters certainly had a good week.

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Scan you remember last week when we had all the super intellectual reasons of why the market was down. Now we have all the 4D chess reasons for why the market is up.

Has anyone watched Moon Knight? It’s the story of a chap with split personalities that is the avatar of an Egyptian god. The Egypt part isn’t important but mores the split personality part.

We will continue to attach these stories to things because our brain seeks order.

I wonder if the real bubble, if we are living through one, is in financial narrative. Constantly flipping from one story to the next to try to explain the unexplainable.

The dot is Green

Trend is 747.20

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

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Third quarter has the smallest amount of variation…

Gamma is positive.

Heading into the strongest part of the month for flows..

Feels like deja vu and the compulsion is to feel like a fraud just posting the same thing.

I have come to realise it is the opposite. It is a superpower. The ability to review the same dataset continuously trying as much as possible not to inject any bias.

Just the facts when it comes to what has happened in the past and the humility to understand we can only try and map an approximation of that past on the future.

Just like a media that was trained to view the world as it was in the past but no matter how different it really is they can only use the same flip flop stories to explain it.

If you like all the wiggly wiggles then here are the levels.

The wiggles are fine.

For a simpler life If we just hold above trend and go flat below trend we can achieve this with the past.

How likely is it to manifest into the future?

Who knows?

I certainly don’t. It sure does help my sanity though to have a couple of numbers to watch out for instead of trying to pick my way through the split personality of “the noos”.

TL;DR 
231 longs in a crashing market!!

Mag 7 on its Jekyll & Hyde trip..

Value, you go grrl!

Wowser in a “crazy week” you know where we went down 1% and then up 1%. Safe Utilities got the biggest nut punch.

“Hello Meta my old friend” green on the walk forward and both mean reversion triggers (T3 & T4) do we have a possible options trade brewing?

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SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

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So last week’s title was “No Drama..” be honest did you freak out?

This is a safe space…

The SPY at its lowest this week compared to Friday close was -1.29% and closed +1.09%.

It’s OK we are in the second year of the cycle, where vol bands have compressed and emotions run high.

Down 2s this year feel like down 5s last year.

Our silly monkey brains!

The dot is yellow.

Trend is 732.30

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

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TL;DR 
242 longs in a crashing market!!

The Mag7 killing the market!! How weird look at the market cap…

Energy and Utilities even stranger bedfellows!!! One companies revenues are the others costs. How strange.

Remember when Apple were the worst company of all the Mag 7 because they didn’t innovate they didn’t have an AI strategy, what’s changed?

What if it was never any of those things but our monkey brains had to have a reason so will backfilled one?

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Hot Takes with Hank

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A cheeky little freebie today…

We don’t have market crashes until these two lines touch.

So no stress, and more importantly it frees you from watching/listening/consuming to any nonsense financial media.

That is my gift to you.

The dot is yellow.

Trend is 732.26

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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TL;DR 
260 longs in a crashing market!!

Energy and financials what strange bedfellows…

Energy leads the week again, but its financials and healthcare over the longer timeframes.

Imagine “they can’t innovate anymore” and “they have no AI plan at all” being out in front.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

The dot is yellow.

Trend is 732.21.

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

ALWAYS INVERT!

Bottom chart is doing the rounds on the twitter box.

The narrative monkeys are wrong for the wrong reasons.

Subscribers get to pay for my brand of nonsense, Like any good sub stacker I will post it for free if I am right in a month ;)

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SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

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TL;DR 
Are we all prepared to hear about "the market is pricing in the danger" or "the market is forward looking.."

Rotations. What happens after a little knock that doesn’t kill you?

Energy finishing a good week, can refiners margins hold the sector up? Tech all green on timeframes will it broaden out?

Even some of the big boys had a good week!!

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SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

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ALWAYS INVERT!

When we are green/yellow we are long. That’s it!

No need to overcomplicate things life is hard enough as it is.

Imagine if you needed news and macro nuance to save for retirement..

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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TL;DR 
If you thought the level of bullshit you will have to contend with for the last 16 months was too much. Hold onto your hats...

Imagine for a minute something that I know will be difficult…

What if almost all financial commentators speak absolute bollocks all the time.

Just putting that out there.

Cool 308 tickers are long.

Aargh panic! Actually no wait…

Even the Mag7 went up last week.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Where to from here ladies and gents?

Last Friday we had the crazy wick below trend on the close, then opened well above on Monday.

That wick doesn’t exist on the futures chart. When we close out a quarter we start to see some divergence in ES/SPX/SPY especially on the futures side to do with funding and how dividends are calculated.

For another week we remain above the precipice.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

ALWAYS INVERT!

Wiggles be wiggling what a mess of a chart!

This chart in all its horribleness explains why price as a value is a useless metric.

“oh it will be a good buy at 650 but here at 720 is a bit rich”

Complete nonsense!!!

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Hot Takes with Hank

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TL;DR 
June is nearly over market has not crashed...
Hot tip! Markets don't crash in July either.

“markets are not strong when only the Generals are leading…”

“the Generals are just too big for the soldiers to be able to carry anything…”

Same market bozos with same market bullshit.

Talking out of both sides of their mouth.

Cool 303 tickers are long.

Despite the sell-off in Tech we now have 4 double digit sectors for the last 3 months..

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Orange you going to sell?

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

ALWAYS INVERT!

Yep we’re still GREEN.

Are you still getting your “colour” on a given situation from The Noos?

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

ALWAYS INVERT!

No Paywall Today!

Levels that went out yesterday to subscribers were on the money.

We are still above trend, but as I keep repeating this is year 2 of 2. Be long above trend but we must act swiftly if we see a shift. Year 1 is easy.

Multiple timeframes of overlapping trend. When these prices/levels are very close one seemingly innocuous 2-3 day move lower can break many trend lines together.

If pre-market sticks we will be back above momentum 744

Well above major trend 734

Internals matter! Just as I pointed out above financials/industrials etc have joined the party and they will squeeze. High for them but maybe not like semis did, then they also will be in a place to cascade through their trend lines all together and then all the podcasters and noise makers can start talking again about “in a bear market all correlations go to one”…

Have a lovely day everyone!

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SimpleSPYMan

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

TL;DR 
Markets still don't crash in June.

Is it all as simple as to squeeze in a new giant you have to sell some of the other giants and leave alone the minnows?

The total number of tickers that are long and in an uptrend has increased again this week.

This chart was over the paywall last week.

Markets don’t crash in June, or at all during the summer actually..

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more