TL;DR 

Boring stuff for the win! 🏥 Healthcare 🛒 Staples and 🎁 Discretionary perhaps the odd one out.

…and so it came to pass. Something moved, and it hurt.

The problem is I don’t think what I said was wrong, and actually this move pushes us closer to the real pain trade. Positions will be forced closed everywhere at a point that things are likely to bounce. We will see, let’s not ever think it we don’t do macro here…

If you picked the boring card well done! Cookie for you.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

The main dashboards are all updated so you can see all 503 tickers in the SP500. Below I have included triggers and expected returns just from the top 100 we are now selecting from.

Have a great week everyone! Try not to listen to too much (any) silly news.

Dashboard ← Use this link to view the SP500 tickers dashboard.

1M/3M MOMO ← Use this link to find the stock’s positions relative to 1M + 3M momentum.

Signal Strength Dots ← Tracking all tickers in their SoS cycle.

Sub-Sector Signal Strength ←Sub-Sector SoS value chart

TL;DR

The dot is Red

Trend is 753.12

From last week has anything changed?

“you said that last week Chris and look where we are now!”

Yeah that stung a bit. I couldn’t have been more wrong about a rotation back into semi-conductors.

We have to roll with the punches, I don’t get to take victory laps and talk about how easy it is to just follow a system. If I don’t also take the shoe in when the same backtests and expected returns produce the same painful outcomes.

The dot is Red

Trend is 753.12

SPY spends 93% of all trading days above this level.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 81% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Calamity was around the corner! Nothing like a swift kick in the nuts to remind you you're not as clever as you think!

At the risk of sounding like a broken record…

Has anything changed?

Remember in August 2024 ( I will wait while you google it..) when Some nonsense came out over the weekend about Japan blah blah rates blah blah end of the bond market. How many times has the bond market ended by the away?

Back on subject, last week I showed you SMH well now NVDA has hit a “black line of doom”…

…QQQ getting in on the action.

And a whole bunch of other stuff.

I was wrong last week. There is a reason the backtests have 1, 5, 10, 20 and 60 day expected returns..

Could we be cut by both edges of the sword?

Selling too late into the face of a bounce.

TL;DR 

All play and no work make spreadsheets a dull view.
All play and no work make spreadsheets a dull view.
All play and no work make spreadsheets a dull view.

Portfolio is updated but the janky spreadsheets that look like crap but that are full of interesting stuff are not…

Sowwy I've been a busy boy.

If you haven’t already go read the SimpleSPYman post, you can see here lots of big stuff has triggered a mean reversion.

If you listen the “the noos” and adjust your portfolio based on it, would you be ready for a bounce? It might be short lived it might not…

It might hurt though! That is the stuff that moves the most when it moves.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

The main dashboards are all updated so you can see all 503 tickers in the SP500. Below I have included triggers and expected returns just from the top 100 we are now selecting from.

Have a great week everyone! Try not to listen to too much (any) silly news.

Dashboard ← Use this link to view the SP500 tickers dashboard.

1M/3M MOMO ← Use this link to find the stock’s positions relative to 1M + 3M momentum.

Signal Strength Dots ← Tracking all tickers in their SoS cycle.

Sub-Sector Signal Strength ←Sub-Sector SoS value chart

TL;DR

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 753.81

From last week has anything changed?

SPY made a run at trend and didn’t break.

So if like me you are just trying to get big moves right in places where you have the most money 401k, Pension, ISA, SIPP {insert country specific savings scheme here} etc

SPY, VOO etc is -3.31% away from its last all time high which was 25 days ago.

Let’s not freak out! I am sure a big move is coming and no doubt “the noos” will be turned up to 11 at the minute.

Let’s bring a chart in front of the paywall. 2018 was the last year to break down into the close of the year. I know many will say what about 1917 or 1854 or the great Pharaoh revolt of BC 4088. To that I would say get a life. Really though things change, we cannot equate today I think even back to the 80’s or 90’s. If we were to go back to a time where 95% of daily trading volume was driven by people and not computers then maybe. Right now that is not the case…

These dates are quarterly and monthly VIXperation dates. Even years like 2022 which was a poor year overall ended slightly better. This is not a balls to the wall everything will be going up go 200% long SP futures.

If 2026 turns out like 2018 and ends down -20% well then it will have to fall -0.27% and break trend.

Of course I would love everyday to just be up and to the right making 1% gains everyday for nothing…

Alas that is not the reality we have right now.

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 753.81

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 81% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Could calamity be around the corner? Of course it can! Here is a chart of first and second month VIX contracts. Can it get worse? Yes! But it has already been pretty bad.

Again if we crash we have to break trend first.

Can you remember all the talk about internal correlation through the summer? I can I think my brain is wired to remember financial bullshit and then highlight it to three people that still subscribe months later and say “see it wasn’t so scary after all”.

If everyone is scared of the doom outcomes, what if everything just gets a smidgen less shit? What if you have to take down some of your hedges? What if billions of dollars of long VIX trades need taken down?

When was the last time finance bros were right about something?

Imagine if SMH and all the other things that have sucked triggered a black line of doom right before the vote that is super hedged…

Imagine if “on average” that meant 60days forward returns were higher ~70% of the time, and the average return was +12.4%. If you are an options kinda guy/gal, long calls to expiry i.e. using only positive outcomes of SMH index were +20%.

With all the noise and nonsense going on, would you be ready for that?

TL;DR 

💻 Tech with The Hyde Vs Jekyll
🛢️ Energy leading just from 🚰 Utilities and 🛒 Staples
🧲7️⃣ MAG 7 not being all that magnificent.

Technology is incredibly split! We have bullish/bearish measure split 48/40. Then as a sector it has the best week over week performance.

Subs can look further using the links below, but the returns are crazy ups and crazy downs.

I said it last week for the regime peeps Quad 3 / Stagflation / Autumn has the lead but the largest change over time came from the naughty big red baddy.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

The main dashboards are all updated so you can see all 503 tickers in the SP500. Below I have included triggers and expected returns just from the top 100 we are now selecting from.

Have a great week everyone! Try not to listen to too much (any) silly news.

Dashboard ← Use this link to view the SP500 tickers dashboard.

1M/3M MOMO ← Use this link to find the stock’s positions relative to 1M + 3M momentum.

Signal Strength Dots ← Tracking all tickers in their SoS cycle.

Sub-Sector Signal Strength ←Sub-Sector SoS value chart

TL;DR

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 753.60

I am going to be incredibly naive, pig headed, dumb money and show just how much “I don’t get it”…

SPY is 2.47% away from an all time high it made 14 trading days ago.

That’s it really.

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 753.60

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 81% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Gamma rebounded from last week.

Every year, except 2018, the last 2 months end well. Regardless of first/second year of the cycle the year finishes with a positive move.

Realised volatility has risen.

Momentum thrust has been in a static band. Which way could it play out?

I do not currently have the time to play wiggles which is why I am not commenting on them as much.

If you are fast twitch has there been stuff to do? Yes.

If you are slow twitch has there been stuff to do? No.

Before the market can be down 10-15-20-30% it will have to fall another -0.83% and break trend.

I am comfortable with that.

TL;DR 

🛒 Staples you sly little fox.
💻 Tech took an arrow to the knee.
🧲7️⃣ MAG 7 saw a rotation but when you have 270 tickers in an uptrend you have to balance the pie somehow.

Energy, Staples and Health Care for the regime people that doesn’t strike me as:

Reflation, Quad 2 or Summer

It smells a little more:

Inflation, Quad 3 or Autumn/Fall

That is way above my pay grade.

The spike in negative relative momentum over the last 2 weeks has worn off. What will we start to see next?

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

I shared the main dashboard on a note this weekend, so if you have bookmarked the links to the sheets they will be changing so the free loaders can’t keep it ;)

I tried to record something yesterday while I was walking but it didn’t make a lot of sense. I will try again today after running all this data which I hope will tie it together.

The main dashboards are all updated so you can see all 503 tickers in the SP500. Below I have included triggers and expected returns just from the top 100 we are now selecting from.

Have a great week everyone! Try not to listen to too much (any) silly news.

Dashboard ← Use this link to view the SP500 tickers dashboard.

1M/3M MOMO ← Use this link to find the stock’s positions relative to 1M + 3M momentum.

Signal Strength Dots ← Tracking all tickers in their SoS cycle.

Sub-Sector Signal Strength ←Sub-Sector SoS value chart

TL;DR

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 753.60

Pick your poison. Fast or Slow? Once you know how you want to play it will help you make decisions.

This is a messy chart using the hourly data.

What’s just happened in the last few days is exactly what normally happens.

The end of the cycle is hectic! Why?

All the pressure and movement has been squeezed into a smaller and smaller space.

The relief after a long rally with a test of trend used to be a -10% move. Then everyone could kinda say “oh that makes sense because {insert macro noise here} happened” then we move through it and the market can move up again.

Now we have no reprieve. -2% from all time highs triggers a “black line of doom” a pressure point that normally be 5-6% further down.

This isn’t me telling you to go max long on Monday. The ideal position would be that you have been long since the last orange dot, and all the orange dots since April 2025.

Now you don’t have to over think it.

It is what it is and we wait for it to break trend.

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 753.60

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

We had a flip this week Equity OpEx came on Friday then we have VIXpiry next Wednesday.

Gamma made a big move to negative.

OpEx cycle is doing its thing.

Have a lovely weekend everyone.

TL;DR 

🚰 Utilities Got the rally that we thought. Is it the start of a rotation or is it one of those dead felines?

After all that time of lagging now the Mag 7 or whatever they are these days are leading…

This I hope highlights the breadth nonsense.

There are periods where the many diverge from the few, but which type?

1. Is it the type where the end of the under-performance actually drives the index higher to a crescendo?

2. Or is it the signal that the end is already here?

More for the paying peeps below ;)

Utilities out performed the other sectors this week.

Tech and Health Care the only sectors positive over the timeframes that matter most.

The V bottom signal has worn off. How will this translate as we move forward was it the last roll of the dice, or will we see the crash higher into the new year?

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

The main dashboards are all updated so you can see all 503 tickers in the SP500. Below I have included triggers and expected returns just from the top 100 we are now selecting from.

Have a great week everyone! Try not to listen to too much (any) silly news.

Dashboard ← Use this link to view the SP500 tickers dashboard.

1M/3M MOMO ← Use this link to find the stock’s positions relative to 1M + 3M momentum.

Signal Strength Dots ← Tracking all tickers in their SoS cycle.

Sub-Sector Signal Strength ←Sub-Sector SoS value chart

TL;DR

The dot is Green

Trend is 753.53

I’m not sure what more there is to say…

No the index is not pulling up trees, but it made a new all time high this week.

Still not entirely sure if new highs are bullish or not? /s

The dot is Green

Trend is 753.53

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

This is the part with al the hand wringing about all nonsense and trying to make it all make sense…

There is actually not that much to say.

What ho! Positive flows..

OpEx cycle is doing its thing.

The end of the year tends to be jolly boring.

Have a lovely weekend everyone.

TL;DR 
📲 Technology to the moon again yay!

🏠 Real Estate and 🚰 Utilities I know predictions are naughty but is a bond proxy rally over due?

Technology is leading the way and all the semis etc have bright green walk forward..

Sometimes its ok to just say the stuff that spends the most time going up is probably going to keep going up.

You don’t have to be the smartest bear in the room and have a clever counter argument.

Just own it, then sell it when its breaks trend 👍

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

What ho! Bondilihos!

It is there if you squint a little.

I am not here to tell anyone to now become the biggest bond bull move all their assets into bonds, start a deflationista podcast…

Would it hurt to buy 1-2% of IEF/TLT leaps?

The dot is Green

Trend is 750.44

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

TL;DR 
Short RSP vs Long MAGS ? 

No change really...

Here we go with the trade what sort of person are you? A QQQy type person where trends last until they don’t, or an IWMy type person where moves have a lifecycle and often mean revert?

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

If you are reading this then you probably subscribe to the big finance substacks and likely have a few of the big podcasts on a weekly rotation too…

How many of them were discussing a new all time closing high for QQQ on Tuesday?

I bet you heard a lot about bonds and Trump and the blah blah…

Did it help your account?

The dot is Green

Trend is 750.41

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

TL;DR 
Short RSP vs Long MAGS ? 
🚰 Utilities and 🏠 Real Estate On the rebound ?

No change really...

Perhaps I was little early with the bouncy bouncy talk, but another week has passed and even more things are “oversold”…

Lots of sectors but the standout is Utilities.

Following on from last week. Would everyone be ready for the MAG{insert_number_here} to lead again?

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

Get a life if you think I have any idea about that nonsense, but thanks for clicking the bait.

The dot is Yellow

Trend is 750.24

SPY spends 82% of all trading days above this level.

Its all cool beans.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more