ALWAYS INVERT!

Is the pain trade nothingness?

All the bulls getting caught doubting themselves..

All the bears pointing at the indexes and the Mag7 but the breadth they have been complaining about rising?

Could we find ourselves in a month swimming in memes?

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think. We are in the green do your thing.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

Read more

TL;DR 
📲 Technology back to normal?
🏠 Real Estate finally on the train!
⑦ Mag 7 a couple of names have stubbed a toe but still strong.

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Does anyone like the movie Inception?

It’s pretty hard to explain if you have seen it let alone if you haven’t. It is a heist movie but set within the dreams of the group trying to pull off the heist.

So they are at cross roads of the plan and have to make shift while in a gun fight.

Someone has an MP5 which isn’t really making a dent. Remember this is all inside of someone’s dream.

“Don’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, Darling”

As the next character pulls out a rocket launcher.

What if your mean reversion monkey brain won’t let you dream a little bigger?

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think. We are in the green do your thing.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

Read more

TL;DR
Just following the price. Nonsense is bad. Financial nonsense is the worst.

Be honest after the last post a couple of weeks ago did the weight of all the economists and macro bros words allow you to hedge what would hurt the most?

The worst pain would be an up market and a realisation that all the podcasts you listened to and substacks you subscribed to and read was a big waste of time.

Lets just do some numbers.

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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• Current Open Equity = 34%

• Stop Loss Trigger = 30.8%

• Current Closed Equity Return = 34.3%

Our open equity outstanding is ~34% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~34% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

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SimpleSPYman

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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TL;DR 
🏦 Financials GFC4.9 averted again! 
📲 Technology macro bros running out of lives calling the end on this one...
🏠 Real Estate finally on the train!
⑦ Mag 7 and by extension size have gone from worst to best!

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

ALWAYS INVERT!

The compression came just as I said it would. This may sound very egotistical especially from an Englishman but I think I have been more right about the SP500 index than almost anyone.

If you look at 2020 there were several drops down to ∆1 the green line.

This is very different from today. Over the paywall I will try and explain why this could be important.

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think. We are in the green do your thing.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

Read more

This is awful do not follow this! It is clear that this system does not function in the way envisioned without constant upkeep and high turnover.

• Current Open Equity = 34%

• Stop Loss Trigger = 30.8%

• Current Closed Equity Return = 34.2%

Our open equity outstanding is ~34% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~34% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

SimpleSPYman

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

TL;DR Same as last week...
🏦 Financials leading the way. Another April financial crisis averted?
📲 Technology led by Semis and software with a sprinkle of MAG7
🏠 Real Estate missed this train!
⑦ Mag 7 and by extension size have gone from worst to best!

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

A wise man once said:

“always invert”

Carl Jacobi in the 19th century used it to solve difficult math problems by going through the ways not to solve them first to help find the way to solve them.

Planners use it in engineering, in fact most good planners in any field use it. Instead of finding the best plan, search for what could really hurt me. From thinking about things that would hinder the end goal a critical paths emerges. It also means should hiccups occur during a project or event at least some thought has been given to problems so they become less stressful.

I have not inverted enough, or perhaps inverted too much!

I have been hurting my paid subscribers by lifting my skirt too much with all the good stuff in order to attract attention.

This has been wrong! Because it hasn’t gotten me any further building an audience and it has hurt the people that put their faith/money to back me.

ALWAYS INVERT!

Buy Strength, Sell Weakness

Hot Takes with Hank - Simple is as Simple does!

Buy Strength, Sell Weakness is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

Listen now

21 days ago · Christopher Moir

I cannot make it any simpler than this!

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

Read more

TL;DR
People who are complex with their words are often simple with their numbers. Do not listen to wordsmiths in a numbers game.

All the levels I “use” calculated today and put on a chart. Reality is I only use ∆2 in blue which is TREND that I refer to always and forever.

I won’t ruin the joke just watch the video.

Let’s just say “the gap” between 660 and 670 which all the wordsmiths are saying must be filled, is the “Wordsmiths nightmare”.

It is a moving target! What ho Christopher you say prices are the most important thing and they are the only thing to be believed. This gap cannot be changed!

Past the spooky paywall I will spin you a yarn.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

Hot Takes with Hank

Buy Strength, Sell Weakness

**SWEARING AGAIN** Sorry!

Very sorry, lots of swearing in this one. Also a terrible American dialect/accent. If any of this offends you then you are not my people ;)Buy Strength, Sell Weakness is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

Listen now

23 days ago · 1 like · Christopher Moir

Think pieces!

Read more

TL;DR
🏦 Financials leading the way. Another April financial crisis averted?
📲 Technology led by Semis and software with a sprinkle of MAG7
🏠 Real Estate missed this train!
⑦ Mag 7 and by extension size have gone from worst to best!

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

• Current Open Equity = 33.5%

• Stop Loss Trigger = 30.3%

• Current Closed Equity Return = 32.7%

Our open equity outstanding is ~34% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~33% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

6779 -4.87% to break momentum

6685 -6.18% to break trend

I cannot make it any simpler than this!

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

Read more

• Current Open Equity = 29%

• Stop Loss Trigger = 25.8%

• Current Closed Equity Return = 32.7%

Our open equity outstanding is ~29% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~33% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

TL;DR
🛢️Energy best to worst.
🚰 Utilities making the case to just trade XLK vs XLU
⑦ Mag 7 back from the dead?

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

6603 -3.12% to break momentum

6477 -4.97% to break trend

I cannot make it any simpler than this!

Ooh look at that, vol is starting to compress! I have no idea who has been talking about this over and over again in fact so many times he is even boring himself talking about the same thing, but weirdly it is the only thing that over time really matters but everyone keeps paying more attention to the useless stuff because it is shiny and you get to pretend to be a macro bro instead of just doing the same boring stuff over and over again because it works..

All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.All squiggles and no macro make Chris a dull boy.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

Read more

• Current Open Equity = 29.5%

• Stop Loss Trigger = 26.3%

• Current Closed Equity Return = 32.6%

Our open equity outstanding is ~29.5% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~33% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

New user guide - Paid Portfolio Posts

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more