TL;DR 
June is nearly over market has not crashed...
Hot tip! Markets don't crash in July either.

“markets are not strong when only the Generals are leading…”

“the Generals are just too big for the soldiers to be able to carry anything…”

Same market bozos with same market bullshit.

Talking out of both sides of their mouth.

Cool 303 tickers are long.

Despite the sell-off in Tech we now have 4 double digit sectors for the last 3 months..

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

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Orange you going to sell?

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

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Yep we’re still GREEN.

Are you still getting your “colour” on a given situation from The Noos?

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 82% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

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ALWAYS INVERT!

No Paywall Today!

Levels that went out yesterday to subscribers were on the money.

We are still above trend, but as I keep repeating this is year 2 of 2. Be long above trend but we must act swiftly if we see a shift. Year 1 is easy.

Multiple timeframes of overlapping trend. When these prices/levels are very close one seemingly innocuous 2-3 day move lower can break many trend lines together.

If pre-market sticks we will be back above momentum 744

Well above major trend 734

Internals matter! Just as I pointed out above financials/industrials etc have joined the party and they will squeeze. High for them but maybe not like semis did, then they also will be in a place to cascade through their trend lines all together and then all the podcasters and noise makers can start talking again about “in a bear market all correlations go to one”…

Have a lovely day everyone!

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TL;DR 
Markets still don't crash in June.

Is it all as simple as to squeeze in a new giant you have to sell some of the other giants and leave alone the minnows?

The total number of tickers that are long and in an uptrend has increased again this week.

This chart was over the paywall last week.

Markets don’t crash in June, or at all during the summer actually..

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Vol bands have compressed right on schedule. I hope I helped people get through March and why it wasn’t the big crash people wanted it to be..

The bands being closer now means we are closer to the crash actually happening.

Over the paywall I go over why the internals matter.

Have a good week everyone.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

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TL;DR 
Irony of all ironies we now have more tickers in an uptrend than at any point over the last 7 weeks. Not a single mention by anyone. Breadth is increasing!

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

I thought it would be good to use a long term chart this week just to put Friday into perspective.

Friday was a big move and I am not dismissing it. I have been saying for a jolly long time in the second year smaller moves are met with higher vol simply because the same levels now come in 3% moves instead of 7% moves.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

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TL;DR 
🛢️ Energy "Don't these people know there is a war!"
📲 Technology leading on all measures.
🚜 Materials having a turn-around week?
⑦ Mag 7 Is the Mag 7 now a macro trade? Lockstep is ended and the variation defines the macro regime? Too far..?

Here is a post from March 15th, I have made it available for all, where I started to show people that technology was starting to turn.

The ultimate low in the indexes had not come yet but to this point the median return for the tech sector was -12%. The part of the index that always goes up had already crashed. You see this over and over with what HariPKrishnan calls “the second leg down”. The internals are cascading while the top level indexes appear not to care, then you get what I would call the phantom second leg because the indexes finally appear to care.

Phantom because the market has different phases and I often talk about the 2 year volatility cycle. What we had in Mar ‘26 marked the end of year 1 and started year 2.

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Just think about all the noise and nonsense and all we got was some orange dots..

I have no idea when but this chart just as it showed me March 26 wasn’t the one it now means “the one” is closer.

Vol compression has occurred and can continue for a long time, but it now means trend lines can be broken with a smaller % move.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

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TL;DR 
🛢️ Energy leading momentum but falling behind Tech
📲 Technology leading the pack on price but only 48% is bullish.
🛳️ Big jump week/week is it the end of the beatings?
⑦ Mag 7 wide dispersion between the names

Here is a snapshot of part of the dashboard subscribers can access, there they can see every ticker in the SP500 index.

Strength of Signal (SoS) is our driving measure of strength and how we start to rank all the tickers.

Then we show price performance.

Long denotes if something is above our measure of trend which is not a moving average but something proprietary.

Uptrend shows if SoS is rising or not.

Walk forward shows us if the old prices in the look back are a tailwind or a headwind to our measures being positive.

Triggers (T) show multiple triggers both mean reversion or trend type triggers.

Cap_S shows the market cap weight within its sector.

Cap_I shows the market cap weight within the index.

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Just like that April doesn’t exist.

Spy is above trend do above trend type things. Do not be a hero calling a top because as you see below it doesn’t work 91.48% of the time.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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TL;DR 
🛢️ Energy streaking ahead on returns.
📲 Technology leading the way in momentum.
🛳️ Discretionary getting a kick in the teeth.
⑦ Mag 7 a couple of names have an arrow to the knee.

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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ALWAYS INVERT!

Is the pain trade nothingness?

All the bulls getting caught doubting themselves..

All the bears pointing at the indexes and the Mag7 but the breadth they have been complaining about rising?

Could we find ourselves in a month swimming in memes?

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think. We are in the green do your thing.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

KeepItSimpleSubstack

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

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TL;DR 
📲 Technology back to normal?
🏠 Real Estate finally on the train!
⑦ Mag 7 a couple of names have stubbed a toe but still strong.

Over the paywall I go more in-depth and paid subscribers can access grabs of the spreadsheets showing all 503 tickers in the SP500.

New user guide

SimpleSPYman

Hot Takes with Hank

Think pieces!

Read more

ALWAYS INVERT!

Does anyone like the movie Inception?

It’s pretty hard to explain if you have seen it let alone if you haven’t. It is a heist movie but set within the dreams of the group trying to pull off the heist.

So they are at cross roads of the plan and have to make shift while in a gun fight.

Someone has an MP5 which isn’t really making a dent. Remember this is all inside of someone’s dream.

“Don’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, Darling”

As the next character pulls out a rocket launcher.

What if your mean reversion monkey brain won’t let you dream a little bigger?

I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over again which is a good thing. I think. We are in the green do your thing.

It is all the same chart so I can use all the same data. In the last 1761 trading days SPY has been above “trend” i.e. in green or yellow 83% of days.

We could probably include orange as the distribution is very similar, but we need a transition point.

In 1761 trading days price has never moved directly from Green into Red/Black there is always an intermezzo hangout in Orange.

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TL;DR
Just following the price. Nonsense is bad. Financial nonsense is the worst.

Be honest after the last post a couple of weeks ago did the weight of all the economists and macro bros words allow you to hedge what would hurt the most?

The worst pain would be an up market and a realisation that all the podcasts you listened to and substacks you subscribed to and read was a big waste of time.

Lets just do some numbers.

Hot Takes with Hank

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• Current Open Equity = 34%

• Stop Loss Trigger = 30.8%

• Current Closed Equity Return = 34.3%

Our open equity outstanding is ~34% since we started in Dec ‘23. We have been able to capture ~34% returns in closed trades, meaning Mr Market has some of our monies in his greasy mitts!

Subscribe to see the portfolio. You can do it for free using the 7-day trial if you want.

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